Baseball as a Political Portent

I don't for a moment suggest that one start forecasting the outcomes of political contests by the results of sporting events. Why, that would be as silly as using astrology to decide who the next President might be! And we all know what Jim Morrison said of astrology, "I think it's a bunch a' bullshit." Enough said!

I would like you to consider, however, the following state of affairs. Hillary Clinton, the junior senator from New York, and Barack Obama, the junior senator from Illinois, are locked in a tight race for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. As it happens, each of those states has two major league baseball teams, one in each of the two leagues. At this time, on May 26, 2008, Memorial Day, here is how those four teams stand in their respective divisions:

New York Yankees (American) - fourth in the Eastern Division
New York Mets (National) - fourth in the Eastern Division
Chicago White Sox (American) - first in the Central Division
Chicago Cubs (National) - first in the Central Division. (The Cubs are listed as tied with the St. Louis Cardinals, but the Cubs's winning percentage is .580, while the Cards are at .577.)

If the two New York teams were usually losing teams, and the two Chicago teams were perpetual powerhouses, this would be unremarkable. As it happens, however, the Yankees have been leaders in their division most of the time in the past ten or twelve seasons, and the Mets have had some good teams, as well. On the other side, the Cubs have defined the term "lovable losers" for six decades, though they have a had a few decent teams in recent years. So, for both Chicago teams to be riding so high, and both New York teams flirting with the cellar, is a highly unusual circumstance.

How can we take it, if not as an omen? The stars are not aligned in New York's favor this year; this is the year of Illinois. If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Senator Obama.

(I could also mention that the last big fight I know of between candidates from New York and Illinois was the 1860 Republican contest, in which the Illinoisan Lincoln handily took the party's nomination from the New Yorker, Seward.)